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Absent a miracle of Biblical proportions (cue the Huckabee choir) we are down to three possible presidential selectors of our next Vice President.
Let the VP sweepstakes begin! Why so early? In years past the job was merely filled just prior to the convention in order to geographically “balance” a ticket and make a regional presidential candidate a little more palatable to some other parts of the country. Since then, however, our two most recent VPs have truly re-defined the role. While Al Gore’s unusual post-VP prominence and impact on policy has at least as much to owe to his post-VP activities on behalf of our oven-heated planet he was also seen as a true policy player in the Clinton Administration. No one then ever whispered “ my God what if something happens to Bill “. Dick Cheney’s tenure in the office even more demonstrates just how important the position can be well beyond those { tentative } heart beats he and the President take. In fact both Cheney’s selection and Gore’s were counter-intuitive in respect to the regional/ideological balance that had previously been the mantra for Vice-Presidential selection. Gore was a southerner like Clinton, relatively young like Clinton and also fit the centrist tilt (at least then) of the way that administration chose to govern. Likewise, Cheney offered no electoral votes in his selection; Wyoming’s three votes will still reliably go Republican unless unemployment tops 30% and McCain chooses Ann Coulter as his press secretary. His brand of corporate conservatism also runs parallel to that of Bush. He brought something, however, to Bush (a Texas governor with no foreign policy experience) that the Presidential Candidate Bush was perceived to lack and thereby gave birth to the political world’s favorite word of 2000 – Gravitas. This is best defined as a perceived seriousness and maturity to reassure voters. With Cheney around Cowboy Bush wouldn’t be seen as operating blind in foreign policy. Oh, the irony. Interestingly enough, if anything the “ gravitas “ quality becomes ever more relevant given this country’s post-9/11 insecurities.
Let’s start then with the ongoing Democratic race which pits the “experienced” { by virtue of sharing the Presidential bedroom (occasionally at least) } Hillary Clinton against the upstart orator of change, Barack Obama. If Hillary’s machinations over Florida, Michigan and super delegates prevails, the idea of the Clinton-Obama “dream ticket” is the most likely reality. First of all, in that scenario Obama comes to the convention with nearly as many, if not more, selected delegates than Hillary. There is no way his highly enthusiastic and young delegation leaves together with the rest of a united Democratic Party without getting something and that something is a place on the ticket. Hillary has nothing else to offer and Obama would look petty to refuse. There has never been a significant policy difference between the two (at least in historical terms) and the only risk to Obama is Hillary winning and staying eight years and seeing his role overshadowed the whole time by the First Husband. If Hillary wins in 2012, it will mean, in my view , that Hillary prevented that from happening and that she figured out how to make proper use of Obama’s intellect and unique international resume. Should Obama refuse for some reason we can’t now see likely Hillary choices are Midwesterners, Hispanics and/or military: Retired Senator Bob Kerry (Nebraska), General Wesley Clark and Senator Ken Salazar (Colorado) are the best bets.
Obama’s ascendancy presents far more possibilities. He would owe nothing to the Clintons in the sense that she was the supposedly inevitable favorite that got beat. She brings nothing to his candidacy. He has the money and organization and she would only drain independent votes given her astronomical disapproval ratings. If he wanted to reach out and give something to the Clinton machine, he’d look at General Clark, Joe Biden or most likely Bill Richardson (New Mexico). Richardson’s resume helps with the gravitas thing, he’s Hispanic (a Hillary core), he doesn’t put a Senate seat at risk and he has a good relationship with former President Clinton. His biggest weakness, his possessing the charisma of a re-heated burrito, would not be a problem running with Obama who can carry them both on this score. In fact, it tempers against the “what have you done” critique Obama often faces since Richardson has indeed done it all and pretty well. Getting New Mexico’s and Colorado’s electoral votes wouldn’t hurt either.
The very best choice for Obama, however, would be our own retired Senator Sam Nunn (a sure pick for Secretary of State/Defense should the VP slot be offered to someone else). Talk about gravitas! With his noted security credentials he could reassure even the most paranoid talk radio listener. True, Georgia still likely stays red but Nunn puts Virginia, Arkansas, North Carolina and maybe even Louisiana in play. More dark horse names for Obama would be Chris Dodd (Connecticut), Ben Nelson (Nebraska), Governor Easley (North Carolina), Governor Sebelius (Kansas) – a woman on the ticket would appease some Hillary folks - and Governor Schweitzer (Montana).
McCain’s choices are actually more interesting, simply because it will be curious which direction he goes. In a sense it is also a weightier choice given that it’s not totally clear he would serve a second term if given the opportunity. Conventional wisdom is someone young and someone to appease the Right Wing of the party, but McCain the Maverick has made a political career out of defying conventional wisdom.
A few weeks ago Huckabee looked strong, appealing to the Evangelicals, the must win border states and Mid-West like Missouri, Iowa and Minnesota. He is also someone who McCain genuinely likes and respects. His quixotic quest since being mathematically out, however, will begin to wear thin on the impatient McCain and I think Huckabee is beginning to cause Republicans to call into question his personal judgment. Furthermore, Wall Street and the Chambers of Commerce all around the country might in a real sense sit out the 2008 race with a McCain/Huckabee ticket and instead wait to give their boy Romney another shot in 2012 against a Democrat softened by 4 years of events and partisan rhetoric.
Also forget the Mc Cain unity ticket with Lieberman, Nelson or Romney. None brings needed electoral votes. Furthermore, a Lieberman or Ben Nelson pick would almost guarantee the self-proclaimed Reagan conservatives to sit it out. Mitt Romney on the other hand is far too ambitious and plastic for McCain’s taste; he’s exactly the kind of Republic McCain despises and loves to irritate.
Given McCain’s strong security credentials and nationwide name recognition, I see him choosing a more obscure Governor or some up and coming conservative from the U.S. House. Governor Charlie Crist from neighboring Florida is on the surface perfect. He brings big important electoral votes, he’s young, telegenic and also has an appeal to the center. He also took a bullet for Mc Cain when he needed it most. He suffers, however, from the same ailment as Lindsay Graham. At a time when divorced McCain needs to reassure the family values/conservative voters, I’m not sure he can afford the whispers (fair or not) that both of these long-time bachelors are a bit “light in the loafers.” Among the governors there are some rising republican stars out there led by Minnesota’s Tim Pawlenty (a big state for the Republicans electorally), Bob Riley (Alabama) a hero of Christian conservatism but also a good budget guy, Mark Sanford (South Carolina) and Michael Steele, the African-American former Lt. Gov of Maryland { not the bass player for the Bangles }.
More outside the box choices for McCain would include: Colin Powell (a coup if he could seduce him from Obama), Senator Kay Bailey Hutchinson (if Hillary is the nominee) and Congressman Chris Cox from California – a Harvard educated conservative who boasts knowledge of all things economic, McCain’s confessed weakness in an election that might after all end up being all be about the economy.
My bet is Pawlenty if it’s Obama (with Leiberman being touted for Secretary of State), and Cox or Hutchinson if it’s Hillary. And what about our own Governor Sonny Perdue? I have two thoughts: “ ain’t a gonna happen “ and something about waiting until pigs start flying out of some very odd places.